Media Room




MARKET OUTLOOK

Harlan Cadinha discusses the steep market declines and how the volatility in the Administration could be responsible.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Harlan Cadinha discusses how the trade war with China and the impending election are putting negative pressure on the markets.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Harlan Cadinha discusses the potential causes for the over 800 point drop in the market.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Harlan Cadinha discusses the drivers behind the recent market upswing and what we are looking out for in the near term.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Harlan Cadinha discusses the drivers of the Dow's over 720 point drop and what Cadinha is looking for in the near term.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Harlan Cadinha discusses Trump's threat of tariffs on steel and aluminum and why he does not believe it is a positive for the stock market.

@CadinhaNews

Commentary

Investment Commentary: December 31, 2018

15 Jan 2019 | Neil Rose

Pop quiz: How would stocks perform in a year when:

 

  • GDP rises above 3%
  • S&P 500 earnings rise over 20%
  • corporate taxes are slashed
  • personal income is up over 4%
  • the unemployment rate falls to a 50-year low
  • and inflation is contained and under 2%?

 

One could be forgiven for a bullish answer.  Stocks rose nicely for the first three quarters of 2018 only to go into bear market, ending down 4.5% for 2018.  Foreign markets fared worse, down double digits on average; Chinese stocks were down by almost a third.

 

Uncertainty and fear are growing for many reasons. Most are related to—or directly caused by—Donald Trump: An escalating and costly trade war with China, an increasingly dysfunctional government, 17 open investigations between Robert Mueller and two U.S. Attorney districts, impeachment odds, rising deficits, and more. Trump’s trade war in particular has negated much of the “supply-side effects” and gains in confidence from last year’s tax cuts and regulatory roll-back.


Percentage Points

Losing Isn’t Winning

Press

STAR ADVERTISER: Former QB Rose blooms at investment firm

Former Harvard University quarterback Neil Rose said he hasn't changed his investment philosophy since he began calling signals at Honolulu-based Cadinha & Co. nearly 16 years ago.   Rose, the newly named president of the investment management firm, prefers investing conservatively than taking risks.   "One of the reasons I joined the company was shared values of conservatism," said the Hawaii native, who also is retaining his position as chief investment officer. "What I've found in the time since is the being conservative is a great offensive asset. Those who have made the most over time in investing - the Warren Buffetts of the world - they're all known as conservative investors. That's a paradox to the dogma you hear that to make more returns you need to take on more risk. That's not true. To make more returns you have to take less risk. There are no old gunfighters, and that applies to the investment world as well."

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HAWAII BUSINESS: INVESTMENT STRATEGIES FOR WHEN YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT LIES AHEAD

https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/investing-when-you-dont-know-what-lies-ahead/

A conversation about investing amid risk, volatility, tariffs, political uncertainty and the unexpected changes that will happen in your own life.

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